A Probabilistic Surrogate for Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulations
Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a foundational method for simulating systems that evolve through a sequence of discrete, random events. It appears across a wide range of science and engineering simulations: defect and trap generation in semiconductor devices (device reliability and endurance simulations in TCAD), ion transport and degradation in battery materials, catalytic reactions on surfaces, crystal and thin-film growth, and microstructure evolution in metals and alloys. KMC is a highly effective method, but it is computationally expensive, and it has a few characteristics that set it apart from the conventional time-stepping and integration-based solvers on which most deep-learning surrogates are built. The time between events is a random quantity produced by the solver, and the solver is itself stochastic, so the same starting configuration yields a different trajectory on every run.
The new kinetic Monte Carlo example in PhysicsNeMo is an end-to-end recipe, from training to trajectory generation, for a probabilistic surrogate that emulates a KMC solver one event at a time. From the current state, it predicts a full probability distribution over the next event, and running it forward repeatedly turns a single starting configuration into an ensemble of plausible trajectories with calibrated uncertainty.